A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
